WHAT THE HAL?? PODCAST 2.0 – EPISODE 13: El Niño Explained: Weather, Climate and the Impacts Ahead
WHAT THE HAL?? PODCAST 2.0 – EPISODE 13
El Niño Explained: Weather, Climate and the Impacts Ahead
What exactly is El Niño, and why can warming water in the Pacific Ocean influence weather patterns around the world?
In this episode, Hal Eisner is joined by former FOX 11 meteorologist Rick Dickert for a clear and accessible look at the science behind El Niño and La Niña. Rick explains how these natural climate patterns form, why they matter, and what a strengthening El Niño could mean for rainfall, storms, wildfires, and hurricane activity.
The conversation explores the global impacts of El Niño, how weather agencies forecast changing conditions in the Pacific, and the relationship between natural climate variability and long-term climate change. Rick also discusses why even small changes in ocean temperatures can have significant consequences and how accurate forecasting helps communities prepare for seasonal weather impacts.
KEY TOPICS
• What is El Niño and how does it form?
• Understanding the differences between El Niño and La Niña
• How warming Pacific Ocean temperatures influence weather around the globe
• Why El Niño can bring drought to some regions and increased rainfall to others
• The potential impacts of a strengthening El Niño on storms, flooding, and wildfires
• How El Niño affects hurricane activity in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans
• The relationship between natural climate variability and climate change
• Why small temperature changes can have major effects on weather patterns
• How meteorologists use forecast models to prepare communities for future conditions
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RESOURCES & LINKS
https://climate.gov
https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
https://weather.gov
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Hal Eisner
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Elsa Ramon
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Hunter Lowry
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Transcript
The national oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has confirmed some.
Speaker A:Some pretty grim news this year.
Speaker A:We're in for a whopper of an El Nino.
Speaker A:We'll tell you what exactly that means and, and how that may affect you.
Speaker A:I'm Hal Eisner, along with Elsa Ramona and Hunter Lowery, and this is what the hell.
Speaker A:Smart, fresh, and uplifting.
Speaker A:We've got the stories that make you want to say what the.
Speaker A:Now, El Nino is known to create climate chaos.
Speaker A:And this year, meteorologists predict we could be looking at one of the historic strength, one that is of historic strength.
Speaker A:That means we could be looking at some really potential problems.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:That means like, possibly billions of dollars in damage from heat waves, flood, drought, tornadoes, wildfire.
Speaker B:It just goes on.
Speaker C:Yeah.
Speaker C:To fill us in on all of this, we've invited our favorite meteorologist, Rick Dickard, who actually worked with Hal and Hunter at KTTV, Fox 11 in Los Angeles.
Speaker C:So we'd like to thank you, Rick, for being here and sharing your insights and information on this.
Speaker C:First of all, I want to start off with just the.
Speaker C:The nuts and bolts.
Speaker C:What is an El Nino, other than a skit that Chris Farley did on Saturday Night Live when he called it the Nino?
Speaker D:It's so good to be here, first of all, with you all.
Speaker D:Thanks for having me.
Speaker D:Yes, El Nino, it's been around for centuries.
Speaker D:It's nothing new.
Speaker D:We've seen this over hundreds of years.
Speaker D: eruvian fishermen back in the: Speaker D:Much like California, they experience a phenomenon called upwelling, or rising cold, nutrient rich water in that area.
Speaker D:And when that nutrient rich water rises up towards the surface, it helps facilitate phytoplankton.
Speaker D:Phytoplankton, that's food.
Speaker D:And we talk about the fish food chain.
Speaker D:Anchovies rush into the area, and that area is exceptional for anchovy fishing.
Speaker D:So Peruvian fishermen discovered this centuries ago, and they would congregate in that area and fish.
Speaker D:But they realized that every few years, on average two to seven years, that cold water would be choked off and the water would be much warmer than average.
Speaker D:And that warming occurred around Christmas time.
Speaker D:Hence, El Nino, or the Christ Child little boy.
Speaker D:So it was dubbed that name centuries ago.
Speaker D:And essentially what it does is it wreaks havoc with the fishing industry off of Peru.
Speaker D:But then it wreaks havoc climatologically, globally.
Speaker D:Our planet, remember, is covered by about 70% of.
Speaker D:Of water.
Speaker D:So what happens in the water has a profound impact on what happens in the air above it, the atmosphere.
Speaker D:And that is what we are concerned with this upcoming winter, not only locally here in California, but across our entire planet.
Speaker A:Well, it seems like we've heard the words El Nino and also El Nino a number of times over the years.
Speaker A:And I remember one that seemed particularly bad.
Speaker A:I can't tell you what year it was, but there was a lot of rain, there's a lot of flooding.
Speaker A:What's the difference between the two of them?
Speaker A:And what do you think could happen if we see something that's of historic strength?
Speaker D:Well, El Nino, as I said, is the warming.
Speaker D:The warmer than average sea surface temperatures over a wide swath of the equatorial Pacific.
Speaker D:And when that occurs, it fuels the atmosphere with additional heat and energy, which impacts through what we call teleconnections.
Speaker D:Climatologically, it shifts area of high pressure and areas of low pressure.
Speaker D:And the jet stream, the storm track, which drives storms.
Speaker D:If we want to stay locally here on the west coast, it drives those strong Pacific storms that we see here in Southern California during our Mediterranean winter, which is typically November into March, right into Southern California.
Speaker D:Adding that fuel, adding that moisture into the jet stream, into the atmosphere, produces stronger storms, torrential rains, potentially damaging winds and high winds.
Speaker D:Now, the opposite of that, as you asked, Hal, is La Nina, or cooler than average sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific and into Peru.
Speaker D:The Peruvian fishermen love that, as I said, because that means enhanced upwelling, enhanced upwelling of cold, nutrient rich water, which essentially helps out with the anchovy population and the fishing industry down there.
Speaker D:When you get the cooler than average conditions, or what we call La Nina, or below average sea surface temperatures out over that region.
Speaker D:Typically, at least for California, we have drier than average winters.
Speaker D:We are impacted by an area of high atmospheric pressure sinking air.
Speaker D:The jet stream migrates to the north.
Speaker D:Those specific storms I talked about with El Nino don't impact California like they would during an El Nino year.
Speaker B:Now, you're talking about something happening around Christmas time, but from what I've heard, this is going to impact us any minute now.
Speaker B:What is the forecast for what El Nino is going to do to our weather soon?
Speaker D:Yeah, what we've been talking about the last couple months is this evolving El Nino.
Speaker D:And we just got word from the national oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, from the Climate Prediction center that in El Nino is now officially in play.
Speaker D:The sea surface temperatures out over that area of the equatorial Pacific are now at 0.07 degrees Celsius above what is average, 0.05 degrees Celsius is what the threshold is in order for an El Nino to actually be in play, to have developed.
Speaker D:Well, now that we have it in play, what's going to happen over the coming months?
Speaker D:Well, first off, we have computer models which can look at the conditions now, look at the atmospheric conditions and give a pretty detailed and accurate forecast forecast of how that El Nino will continue to evolve or even fizzle out over the coming months.
Speaker D:Well, forecast models have been bullish on this El Nino continuing to develop and strengthen rapidly into the very strong category, or the buzzword we're using in the media, a supersized El Nino, one of the strongest that we could see on this planet.
Speaker D:That's when the sea surface temperatures rise to 2 degrees Celsius or above average.
Speaker D:The hotter that water gets out over the equatorial Pacific, the more energy, the more moisture, fuel, heat that it adds into the atmosphere.
Speaker D:And the more it enhances those conditions, the stronger jet streams and the stronger Pacific storms.
Speaker D:So as of right now, El Nino in play, it's still a relatively weak one.
Speaker D:Models are indicating that it will continue to strengthen.
Speaker D:As it strengthens, that means the chances of strong Pacific storms impacting the west coast of North America, including Southern California, increases.
Speaker D:Heavier than average rain, above average precipitation, above average snowfall.
Speaker D:If the snow level is low enough, which is good for our water supply.
Speaker D:As we know, the snow melt from the Sierra Nevada is paramount to that high surf, which could cause some damage there.
Speaker D:And again, we can't just talk locally, we can talk globally.
Speaker D:How does that impact the climate across the other side of our planet?
Speaker D:Well, in Australia, they have the opposite conditions.
Speaker D:They have droughts, dry conditions, high fire danger.
Speaker D:When we have experienced some of the most active winters with rain and wind and heavy snow, our friends down under in Australia typically observe the opposite.
Speaker D:And this happens again.
Speaker D:We talk about teleconnections, our climate center, the way that we look at our climate, across our climate, our globe.
Speaker D:Consider it a mattress.
Speaker D:If you sit on one corner of the mattress, what happens?
Speaker D:It all kind of adjusts a little bit.
Speaker D:Think of our atmosphere like that as well.
Speaker D:You impact one little area and it's just that little swath over the equatorial Pacific where you warm that water up, you superheat it, everything else sort of adjusts.
Speaker D:And high pressure systems that typically aren't there, they may move to areas where they aren't usual, they may strengthen.
Speaker D:Same with the low pressure systems and the jet stream.
Speaker D:So we see impacts globally from this for us though, strong El Ninos on average, mean above average rain, strong storms that impact the west coast of North America.
Speaker B:Just to follow up, I did not get the answer to the one question I was asking.
Speaker B:When can we expect the weather to hit the fan like tomorrow?
Speaker D:Yeah, you're right.
Speaker D:I'm a little add on that I start going off.
Speaker D:And so that, that's a forecast that's a bit challenging to say.
Speaker D:I would say that we'll start to feel some impacts from El Nino this summer, even though we may not see much in the way of precipitation, that our water temperatures even here locally will start to warm.
Speaker D:It'll start to feel a little bit more humid here where it typically wouldn't.
Speaker D:Typically warmer waters off the coast of Southern California have an impact on our marine layer, our natural ac, and it cuts off the low clouds and fog.
Speaker D:So we don't see the abundance of fog and clouds that keep our temperatures so pleasant.
Speaker D:Here in Southern California, especially at the coast during the summertime, our natural AC is cut off during a typical situation like this.
Speaker D:And not all El Ninos are alike.
Speaker D:And that's really important to point out.
Speaker D:Every El Nino is a little bit different.
Speaker D:And there's other atmospheric and oceanic parameters that come into play that could offset the impact of an El Nino.
Speaker D:But usually when we have a situation like this, Hunter, we would see November into December when we start to see some strong, stronger storms, storms that might be stronger than we would typically observe in a non El Nino year.
Speaker D:But to pinpoint a specific week timetable, that's, that's a bit difficult.
Speaker D:When we get a little bit closer and as this El Nino continues to evolve and as we continue to get that information from the Climate Prediction center in terms of how much of that warming is occurring and other phenomenon that may be occurring or not in the atmosphere across our planet, we'll have a better understanding of the timetable on that.
Speaker A:Rick, I'm sure you go ahead.
Speaker C:I was going to say, I'm sure you have encountered so many schools of thought on climate change, good and bad.
Speaker C:I'm sure you've had people say, you know, that this is a hoax.
Speaker C:You have other people saying, you know, we really should keep an eye on this and everything in between.
Speaker C:But I want to clarify for people who are learning about El Nino and climate change, there is a difference between climate change that we're seeing naturally occurring with El Nino and also some of the man made effects of climate change as well.
Speaker C:When these two things collide, how does that impact us globally beyond just How El Nino impacts us by itself.
Speaker D:Yeah, and that's a great question.
Speaker D:And people talk about it and unfortunately there are two sides.
Speaker D:It's become political.
Speaker D:A lot of people speak to these topics and really aren't educated on climate change and what it really means.
Speaker D:And that there is a natural occurring element that has happened on our globe well before we evolved to the point we are now for millions of years.
Speaker D:Natural climate change being maybe just a slight tilt of the axis of our planet, or 23.5 degrees from the plane of ecliptic.
Speaker D:That's how our planet is tilted as it revolves around the sun.
Speaker D:There are actually slight changes in that tilt that could change our climate dramatically.
Speaker D:Massive volcanic eruptions which spew chemicals into our atmosphere has had a profound impact over the centuries on our climate.
Speaker D:There have been a variety of things that can happen.
Speaker D:Even the sun, Earth, distance, 93 million miles away, that's the average distance.
Speaker D:But that changes as well.
Speaker D:Sunspots, those big storms that occur out over the sun that could impact solar output.
Speaker D:That's just a quick example of what is a natural climate change which has been occurring for millions of years on planet Earth.
Speaker D:Then you bring in the man made component.
Speaker D:All right, how are we as we evolve as a civilization and impacting climate change?
Speaker D:What are we doing?
Speaker D:The Industrial Revolution, that's when it started.
Speaker D:We started to inject greenhouse gases into the atmosphere through the industrial process.
Speaker D:Combustion of vehicles, even building up towns and cities and wiping out the rural communities of the trees, the vegetation, and replacing them with concrete and asphalt which would absorb that energy.
Speaker D:So we definitely do have an impact.
Speaker D:We have increased the amount of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
Speaker D:We have pure data on that.
Speaker D:We have empirical data saying yes, those gases have increased and yes, our temperature right now over the last hundred years has been slowly rising to what degree we are man made activities are increasing that warmth.
Speaker D:That's what's still up for debate.
Speaker D:But most of the scientific community say that there is a strong correlation of what we're doing and how that might be enhancing.
Speaker D:If that enhancing of the warming of our climate is having an impact on say El Nino, that's hard to say.
Speaker D: conversation here, it was the: Speaker D:El Nino has been around and is not a climate change per se.
Speaker D:Element that is caused by climate change, however, is man made activity perhaps enhancing that El Nino.
Speaker D:And that is something that scientists will be looking at and we'll make an assessment after each El Nino.
Speaker D:What we like to do when it comes to global climate change is look at trends.
Speaker D: Okay, it was hot in: Speaker D:And seven, a little below average.
Speaker D: But then: Speaker D:You look for that trend that continually, continually goes up.
Speaker D:And with El Ninos, we'd want to do the same.
Speaker D:Are there more super El Ninos, major El Ninos that have those sea surface temperatures of 2 degrees Celsius or above?
Speaker D:If you see an increasing trend in those over the recent decades, then we could start to say, hey, something's going on here.
Speaker D:We don't see that inclination of the axis.
Speaker D:We don't see anything else in terms of sunspot activity.
Speaker D:We have to attribute that to perhaps what man is doing.
Speaker A:As I sit here and listen to you, Rick, I am reminded of your incredible skill at communicating information.
Speaker A:You have a great way of trying to put things in perspective.
Speaker A:I'm curious if there's a correlation between what we have on this coast and hurricanes over on the other coast.
Speaker A:There's a warming of water.
Speaker A:There's an energy that builds.
Speaker A:Hurricanes develop, El Ninos develop.
Speaker A:Is there something there that ties these things together?
Speaker D:Absolutely.
Speaker D:And as I had mentioned, the analogy of your bed mattress, when you just make a little bit of an adjustment, you sit on one corner, you sit in the center, everything sort of creaks in and out and makes those little changes.
Speaker D:And our atmosphere does the same thing when it comes to El Ninos and very strong El Ninos, as this one is forecast to be calm later on, late in the autumn or during our Northern hemisphere winter, the hurricanes in the Atlantic, the hurricane season is actually reduced.
Speaker D:And you would think the opposite because, hey, we're talking about warmer waters.
Speaker D:That's where these tropical systems get their energy from.
Speaker D:You get water temperatures of 82 degrees.
Speaker D:That's what they feed off of these storms.
Speaker D:But what El Nino conditions do as well, at least for the tropics near the Atlantic Basin where these storms form, near the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, it enhances what we call wind shear or very strong or stronger winds in the upper portions of the atmosphere.
Speaker D:Hurricanes don't like that.
Speaker D:Hurricanes like very tranquil activity so that it could just spin, absorb that moisture, that hot water off of the Gulf or the Atlantic basin in the tropical region and, and gain energy.
Speaker D:If they can't do that and they have erratic winds, they can't get that machine, that hurricane machine going.
Speaker D:That's why NOAA has actually forecast Below average hurricanes for the Atlantic and the Gulf region of our country.
Speaker D:By contrast, though, here on the east coast, because we have our own hurricanes here in the Eastern Pacific, off of the tropical areas just north of the equator, Central America, South America up towards Mexico, the warmer waters there, the superheated waters there, and the way that the atmosphere works, you don't have as much of that wind shear or those erratic winds aloft, and you have that superheated water source.
Speaker D:Remember, this is on the other side of North America here.
Speaker D:When we're talking about the El Nino here in the eastern equatorial Pacific, that warm water isn't in the Atlantic, it's here more locally in our ocean, the largest on the planet.
Speaker D:Then we do see an uptick in hurricane action.
Speaker D:And I will say this.
Speaker D:And back to your question, Hunter, is that what type of weather are we going to see, you know, perhaps in the coming months, that is one element that we could start to see something.
Speaker D:If the wind conditions off of Mexico are right and you do get a hurricane, say, form down off of Acapulco, instead of turning left and going out to sea over the Pacific, and it continues on more of a northward track up the coast of Mexico, up towards Cabo San Lucas, towards central Baja, you're going to feed into that superheated water.
Speaker D:And that water, some of which bubbles up even into Southern California.
Speaker D:We could see water temperatures this summer into the mid and high 70s, approaching 80 degrees maybe in the San Diego area.
Speaker D:So if you were to get one of those storms, one of those hurricanes, those tropical storms form and the upper level winds are right, and that storm makes that path right up the coast of Mexico and Baja.
Speaker D:A storm could hold together much longer than it would typically because you have that warm water which these storms feed off of.
Speaker D:Remember, 82 degrees Fahrenheit.
Speaker D:If you have 82 degree water just south of the border, near off of Baja, that storm's going to stay together and it could impact parts of Southern California.
Speaker D:Maybe not a pure hurricane, but at least a strong tropical storm.
Speaker D:And then when those systems essentially start to fall apart and they release all that moisture, all that moisture typically gets pulled up into the desert Southwest via monsoon.
Speaker D:You could see torrential rain, strong thunderstorms.
Speaker D:That could be some of the first significant weather that we do see from this El Nino, at least locally across.
Speaker B:The Southwest U.S. i got a stupid question.
Speaker B:I should know this.
Speaker B:I'm sure.
Speaker D:They're all good.
Speaker D:I've been asking questions since I was able to speak and I love it.
Speaker D:And I think it's important to how we all evolve.
Speaker B:I just feel like I should know this.
Speaker B:I feel like in a part of my brain I do know this, but I can't remember.
Speaker B:It's like you're talking about the hurricanes that come up the Pacific coast.
Speaker B:And I know, you know, I've seen my rental properties impacted in Baja and areas along the Mexican coast.
Speaker B:But we don't get them in San Diego, we don't get them in Los Angeles and that's just that much farther.
Speaker C:Why?
Speaker D:And that is because of the water temperatures.
Speaker D:Again, I Keep mentioning the 82 degree threshold that hurricanes really like to have to feed off of.
Speaker D:And here in California, like they do typically in Peru, remember that upwelling, that cold nutrient rich water which rises up to the surface from deep below the surface of the sea that happens here in California we have what we call a cold current.
Speaker D:The California current is it runs from north to south.
Speaker D:We have those northwesterly winds that are fierce.
Speaker D:If you've been up in the Bay Area, you know it during the spring and summertime, those winds are strong.
Speaker D:When you have those strong surface winds, you blow away that surface water and then what happens, you get that water rise up from the deep depths of the ocean and you get that upwelling.
Speaker D:That's the typical pattern, a cool or cold current here in California.
Speaker D:And on average, even during the summertime here, as you know, if you want to take a dip in July or August, it's not always, you know, the most inviting.
Speaker D:If it can still be in the upper 60s and comfortable, but not super warm, not Hawaii warm or tropical warm or Cobblestone Lucas warm.
Speaker D:But it will still be a situation where you have temperatures that are below, well below that 82 degree threshold.
Speaker D:So you just don't get those, those storms.
Speaker D:And that's why we rarely see any type of tropical systems.
Speaker D:We'll get the remnants of a tropical system that a full blown tropical storm or hurricane, they've happened very few times in recorded history.
Speaker D:For Southern California, all the way down to San Diego and the Mexican border.
Speaker B:Quick follow up though.
Speaker B:Aren't you telling us that the heat, the water is going to be heated to the point where it could be almost amenable to hurricanes as far north as we are here in Los Angeles.
Speaker D:That's right, because all of that warm water that is developing over the equatorial Pacific and the synoptic pattern, the atmosphere above that area, how that's all going to change not only in the equatorial area, but all the way up into the subtropics into the 30 to 40 degree north latitude.
Speaker D:That would allow that warm water to form, to develop, to migrate farther north up towards the Southern California coast and cut off, choke off that upwelling.
Speaker D: first discovered back in the: Speaker D:The same type of conditions could develop off of Southern California.
Speaker D:You get the warm water, you get the environment in play, which would allow a tropical system to maintain itself moving up off the coast of Mexico right into Southern California.
Speaker C:We can add in hurricanes to earthquakes, wildfires.
Speaker C:Yeah, maybe, you know, on our weather bingo card.
Speaker C:Yes.
Speaker C:Hopefully we don't have to get hurricanes on there.
Speaker C:But just hearing the potential is really quite, I mean it's, it's kind of shocking.
Speaker C:And you know, I, you know, I, I want to point something out because I don't know that I think a lot of people, when you talk about degrees, when you say a two degree shift, I think the initial response people have is so what?
Speaker C:It's 2 degrees.
Speaker C:But overall, globally, 2 degrees can be catastrophic.
Speaker C:A rise in temperatures by 2 degrees.
Speaker C:We're already seeing the effects of, of less than 2 degrees rising in certain parts of the world when it comes to our glaciers and you know, and other parts of the world.
Speaker C:So it's not a small thing to say a 2 degree shift in our waters or our temperatures can have such a devastating impact.
Speaker D:Hugely.
Speaker D:Such a good point.
Speaker D:Our climate system is so fragile and it doesn't take a whole lot of for that shift to occur.
Speaker D:We talk about baseball, one of my favorite sports, it's a game of inches.
Speaker D:And I like to say the climate machine is a game of just a couple degrees.
Speaker D:Either way could have a huge impact whether you hit a home run or you strike out.
Speaker D:And that's essentially what the climate machine of our planet is like.
Speaker D:It is very fragile.
Speaker D:If you think of our atmosphere like this, this is the analogy I always like to give.
Speaker D:The air flying above the atmosphere that provides life that's filled with nitrogen, oxygen, arrogant water vapor, trace gases, including carbon dioxide, that envelope of gases that surrounds our planet.
Speaker D:Think of our planet as an apple.
Speaker D:The peel of the apple is our atmosphere.
Speaker D:That's all it is.
Speaker D:That's the thickness when you put an apple and you put that layer around it, the peel of it, that's our atmosphere and that's why it is so fragile.
Speaker D:And little changes that occur either naturally or, or man made anthropologically, as we say that has a big impact on what happens with our weather.
Speaker D:And when we keep saying this, I'm one and I've always been one.
Speaker D:I've even gotten into trouble when Hunter was at the assignment desk back in the day and she would go, oh, there's a big storm coming, Rick, and this and that,.
Speaker A:And we're all going to die.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker B: Storm Watch: Speaker D:It's going to be a nuisance rain.
Speaker D:Of course, here in Southern California, many people drive too quickly in the rain.
Speaker D:We do things where we're not really prepared because it rains on average here in Southern California only about 35 days of the calendar year.
Speaker D:And people, well, you know, we melt.
Speaker C:As soon as the raindrops hit us.
Speaker C:Here in Los Angeles.
Speaker C:We actually, we actually die.
Speaker D:But that, but that.
Speaker D:But the vast majority of these storms are more like what I used to call there.
Speaker D:It's going to be nuisance rain.
Speaker D:If you're going to be driving the freeway, you can't drive 75 miles an hour.
Speaker D:You got to drive 45 or 50 or you're going to hydroplane because water tends to pond and you're going to get into an accident.
Speaker D:Most areas of Southern California, 90% plus are going to be unscathed.
Speaker D:It's just going to be a nuisance.
Speaker D:You're going to have your umbrella out.
Speaker D:It's going to be raining for a couple of days.
Speaker D:If you have a bad roof, it might leak on and on and on.
Speaker D:You live in a burn area where that hillside has been, you know, washed away of any type of vegetation to hold in that moisture.
Speaker D:Then you're in a vulnerable area for rock, mud and debris flows.
Speaker D:And we've seen devastating situations like that.
Speaker D:And those are the areas that are vulnerable during these big storms.
Speaker D:Back to El Nino.
Speaker D:As I've been saying, not all El Ninos are alike.
Speaker D: super El Ninos since the late: Speaker D: The most recent one in: Speaker D:What happened with that super El Nino again?
Speaker D:2 Degrees Celsius or above surface temperatures, sea surface temperatures out over the equatorial Pacific in LA, less than 10 inches of rain.
Speaker D:Our average rainfall for an entire calendar year is 14.25 inches.
Speaker D:So we were well below average.
Speaker D:That was El Busto.
Speaker D:It was not a strong El Nino that we, or at least we didn't see it.
Speaker D:The water temperatures were above average.
Speaker D:It met that threshold, but we just didn't see the storms and the abundance of precipitation that could happen again.
Speaker D:However, the other three super El Ninos, of the four, we did see powerful storms.
Speaker D: Remember: Speaker D:I remember how out on the front lines of the floods in Ventura, Louisiana county, the Sepulveda Basin.
Speaker D: Same with: Speaker D:I remember that as a freshman right down the street at Redondo Union High School, when I was first becoming enamored with the weather, seeing the strong storms, the high surf, that's when I first got my taste of El Nino.
Speaker D: powerful El Nino of the late: Speaker D:I don't want to go out and scare people at this point.
Speaker D:I just want to continue to inform them and saying, hey, this is what's evolving.
Speaker D:This is what the forecast models are showing.
Speaker D:Three out of four have created, this one hasn't.
Speaker D:So the jury's still out on exactly what could happen.
Speaker D:Be prepared as always.
Speaker D:If you do have a bad roof, make sure it's fixed in the next couple of months.
Speaker A:That's what I wanted that, that's what I want to drill down on for a second though, because, you know, over the years there are all kinds of predictions and predictions are based on information in the moment, but things change.
Speaker A:And so when we talk about things, sometimes we talk about it's going to be, you know, the worst storm ever or the worst systems ever, but there are things that could change that.
Speaker A:It may look like, you know, storms heading towards a bullseye, but, but sometimes things can, can change.
Speaker A:And, and, and so not to, I, I agree with you not to freak people out, but information is knowledge, right?
Speaker A:So it's important to understand what is it, how does it happen and what should we do if we have a bad year.
Speaker A:We know that an umbrella will take us through a good year.
Speaker A:But you know, I think these things are very helpful to understand.
Speaker D:And we rely upon the precipitation and the wettest years in Southern California, if you go back a couple hundred years, have been during El Nino years, whether they be weak or moderate or strong or some of the super strong, ultra sized El Nino.
Speaker D:So they're good in terms of our water supply, we need it.
Speaker D:You know, we go, this is, this is an area, this area of Southern California.
Speaker D:You really don't.
Speaker D:When I mentioned that 14.25 inches of rain, it's very rare that we get that total, give or take a quarter or half an inch each.
Speaker D:And every year that 14.25 inches is an average over several years.
Speaker D:You take 30 degrees, I'm sorry, 30 years of rainfall totals, you divide by 30 and it spits out that 14.2, 5 inches.
Speaker D:Most of the years are well below average or well above average.
Speaker D:You get the 30 inch, 25 inch years and then you get the 5 and 10 inch years and many of those 5 and 10 inch years are back to back.
Speaker D:And then we proclaim a drought and then we bust out of a drought and then we have three or four wet years.
Speaker D:And that brings up another question, that our state needs to do a much better job at understanding that, and they should.
Speaker D:By now the data is there.
Speaker D:I've always jockeyed for some sort of climate channel, so to speak, within our state government to really understand or help the legislators understand how our climate works so we can better facilitate our water needs, our agribusiness in the Central Valley, the snow meltdown, what years are going to, are we going to see the abundance of rain or the runoff from the Sierra Nevada snowpack?
Speaker D:We can do that.
Speaker D:We can put a rover on Mars that takes pictures that kicks around rocks and send them right back to jpl.
Speaker D:We can do something locally here to better serve our needs in this constantly growing state and certify and essentially watching the situation with the water needs of the Central Valley and what have you.
Speaker C:Speaking of Central Valley, I'm sorry.
Speaker C:Go ahead, Hunter.
Speaker B:I'm sorry.
Speaker B:We all live here on the west coast and we tend to be California centric and we're concerned about droughts here and we're concerned about water control here.
Speaker B:But we have to be cognizant of the fact that El Nino is global and we are going to be affected by far more than just remembering to bring an umbrella or having our Mexican vacation ruined.
Speaker B:I, we're looking at potential impacts on agriculture.
Speaker B:We're looking at, you know, farmers who may not be able to plant or may lose their, their crops.
Speaker B:I mean, there are things that are going to impact all of us whether it rains on the west coast or not.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker D:Absolutely.
Speaker D:And you, you mentioned it again globally.
Speaker D:And I essentially said what occurs down in Australia, down Under, during a typical El Nino year, they have the opposite.
Speaker D:They have droughts and wildfires while we have potentially the flooding rains.
Speaker D: rs, like we did in January of: Speaker D:The National Weather Service does a tremendous job at alerting all of the emergency managers, all of the city officials, of what's coming our way, not only in the short term, like that wind event, but they were forecasting that wind event 10 to 15 days ahead.
Speaker D:They had that much lead time.
Speaker D: alifornia in early January of: Speaker D:Our NOAA forecasters are phenomenal about alerting first responders and government officials of what's coming so we can plan accordingly.
Speaker D:And with a larger scale climatological event like El Nino across our entire country, the word is already out.
Speaker D:The Climate Prediction center is issuing these advisories.
Speaker D:They're making sure the channel of information gets to the governors in the Southeast so that they know what kind of hurricane season they may be looking at.
Speaker D:The governor of California knows, hey, this could be a bad El Nino.
Speaker D:Governor Newsom, what are we going to do?
Speaker D:How are we going to Prepare for perhaps 30 inches plus of rain in LA and even more up in the Bay Area and the flooding of the fields in the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys?
Speaker D:We're at a point in our science and technology as we evolve, that we can do that now.
Speaker D:And as I said, if we can put, I like to use this analogy, if we can send a rover up to a planet like Mars and take pictures and manipulate that rover and kick those rocks around and send pictures down, we have the technology, we have the willpower, we have the science and the brain power, the intelligence that's out there with these scientists and planners to essentially offset some of the repercussions that do come from those events.
Speaker D:We can't change the weather and climate.
Speaker D:Some people say we do, or we already are with geoengineering or what have you.
Speaker D:But we can plan the best we can and educate people on how to respond to that.
Speaker A:And so talking about planning as we prepare to wrap this up, you know, let's leave people with a couple of thoughts.
Speaker A:You know, what, what you want them to remember to think about.
Speaker A:And if you have, you know, a website or a place you want to recommend for further knowledge for people who want to read some more about it.
Speaker D:Yeah, absolutely.
Speaker D:And all of the government websites are phenomenal and the Climate Prediction Center CPC is great.
Speaker D:And they are the ones who are really watching this evolving El Nino and they break it down, basically you can go on a deep dive and find out some more scientific background.
Speaker D:And that's what I did as a kid and I still do today to really get a better understanding of it.
Speaker D:But the basics they just put out, you know, some simple graphics and information on this is what typically happens.
Speaker D:They don't go, you know, too detailed like, hey, Southern California usually gets above average rain and stronger storms and heavy surf.
Speaker D:And those websites are great.
Speaker D:And even on your local forecast, weather.gov you enter your zip code, you can get all that information and that will send you to different links as well just to keep up to date on the day to day and on the seasonal forecast.
Speaker D:Those two.
Speaker A:Okay, well you have, you have a great way of putting words together and explaining things in a way not only can do we better understand it, but we remember it.
Speaker A:So Rick Decker, thanks so much for being with us.
Speaker A:Good to see you.
Speaker A:Thank you so much.
Speaker D:So good to see you.
Speaker A:All the best.
Speaker C:Thanks so much.
Speaker B:Good information.
Speaker A:And that's what the How 2.0 I'm Hal Eisner along with Elsa Ramon and Hunter Lowery.
Speaker A:This podcast is produced by Hunter.
Speaker A:Jamie Knapp is our Technical director editor and he handles all of the post production.
Speaker A:Our original theme music is composed by Stuart Pearson.
Speaker A:Earlier versions of the podcast were produced at the studios of Fox 11 in Los Angeles and are available through the link in our show Notes.
Speaker A:This version of the podcast is available on YouTube and wherever you listen to podcasts.
Speaker A:And what the hell.
Speaker A:2.0 Is produced in Los Angeles, California.
